Honduras Carbon Project
Preliminary Estimation of Carbon Credits
Analysis based on satellite data and forest models to assess the potential for generating carbon credits in six strategic areas of Honduras.
Analysis Context
This analysis is based on available satellite remote sensing data and forest carbon models to estimate the potential for generating carbon credits in selected areas of Honduras. The aim is to provide a first quantitative assessment that enables investors and stakeholders to understand the scale of the project.
The calculations presented are approximate and exploratory in nature. Their value lies in guiding initial decisions and establishing a foundation for the subsequent full technical development.
Important Note
The values presented are preliminary estimates. They do not derive from a formal certification process and should be interpreted as order-of-magnitude indicators, not verified figures.
Key Project Data
The analysis covered six forest areas in Honduras, combining historical deforestation data with carbon emissions and removals estimation models.
6
Areas Analysed
Forest zones identified through satellite analysis
1.240
Hectares Lost
Historical forest loss recorded in the study areas
677K
Historical tCOâ‚‚e
Cumulative historical emissions estimated over the analysed period
33.1K
tCOâ‚‚e/year
Estimated annual removal from active forest growth
Calculation Logic
The estimation model is based on two main sources of credits: removals through active forest growth and avoided deforestation. Both contribute to quantifying carbon sequestered or preserved.
1 Carbon Credit
It is exactly equivalent to 1 tonne of COâ‚‚e avoided or removed from the atmosphere.
Forest Removals
Calculated from active forest growth and average data per hectare.
Avoided Deforestation
Estimate of the carbon preserved by preventing logging in pressure areas.
Estimated Annual Credit Production
Two credit generation scenarios are projected, reflecting different levels of ambition and methodology applied to the Honduran project.
Base Scenario
Considers only removals derived from active forest growth, without incorporating credits from avoided deforestation.
≈ 33.100
carbon credits / year
Scenario with Avoided Deforestation
Additionally incorporates the credits generated by preventing forest loss in identified risk areas.
≈ 63.000
carbon credits / year

The difference between scenarios reflects the significant weight that the avoided deforestation component (REDD+) has in forest projects of this scale.
Prudent Estimate Adjusted for Risk
By applying operational reduction factors that account for methodological uncertainty, permanence risk and variability in the base data, a more conservative range is obtained that is better suited to investment evaluation.
Lower Bound
23.000
credits/year — conservative scenario with a high reduction for risk and uncertainty
Upper Bound
45.000
credits/year — optimistic scenario with smaller operational risk discounts
Verification: Last 2 Years
With forest loss data available up to 2022 and assuming continuity of the historical trend, credit generation is estimated for 2021 and 2022.
1
2021 — Estimate
Indicative range: ~30,000 – 60,000 credits. Based on average annual emissions of ~30,700 tCO₂e and estimated removals of ~33,100 tCO₂e.
2
2022 — Estimate
Indicative range: ~30,000 – 60,000 credits. Consistent with the previous year under the assumption of continuity in the forest loss pattern.
3
Total 2 Years
Estimated cumulative: ≈ 60,000 – 120,000 carbon credits in the 2021–2022 period.
Reference Parameters
Average annual emissions:
≈ 30,700 tCO₂e
Estimated annual removal:
≈ 33,100 tCO₂e
Indicative net balance:
Positive, favourable to credit generation
How to Interpret These Numbers
Order of Magnitude
The values presented help to understand the scale of the project. They are useful for initial comparisons between investment alternatives, not for contractual commitments.
Based on Averages
Average data per hectare from regional studies are used. Local variability may alter the results once the field survey has been completed.
No Formal Certification
These figures do not come from a verification or third-party audit process. Formal certification could adjust the values upwards or downwards.
Current Project Status
It is essential that investors and stakeholders clearly understand the phase the project is at before making any decision.
1
Preliminary Phase
The project is in the analysis and exploration stage. Areas of interest have been identified, but full technical development has not yet been completed.
2
Not Certified
No certification process has been initiated with recognised standards such as Verra (VCS) or Gold Standard. The credits are not yet tradable.
3
Not Validated
The estimates have not been reviewed or validated by an independent auditing body. Validation is a mandatory step in order to access regulated carbon markets.

None of the figures presented constitute a guarantee of the generation of certifiable credits. Their use should be limited to preliminary viability assessment.
Next Steps for Real Credits
To turn these estimates into certified carbon credits that can be traded in voluntary or regulated markets, the following technical and administrative phases must be completed.
Each stage requires investment of time and specialist technical resources. The complete process, from defining the methodology to the first issuance of credits, can take between 18 and 36 months depending on the standard selected and the complexity of the project.
Conclusions and Outlook
Estimated Production — Short Term
For the period 2021–2022, the cumulative estimate indicates between 60,000 and 120,000 carbon credits, subject to subsequent methodological validation.
Production in Annual Operation
Once the project enters certified operation, a stable generation of 23,000 – 45,000 credits per year is projected, under prudent assumptions.
Recommended Interpretation
These figures constitute a solid basis for the initial evaluation of the project. They are sufficiently robust to guide exploratory decisions, but they must be confirmed through full technical development, baseline construction and independent validation before any formal financial commitment.

The identified potential justifies moving ahead with the next phases of technical development and certification.